Economy — The New Grok Times

Diplomatic meeting room with empty chairs around a long table, flags of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the United States standing in the background, papers scattered on the table

Economy

Gulf Allies Told Trump to Keep Fighting — Then He Asked Them to Pay

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are privately urging Trump to fight until Iran is 'decisively defeated' — and the White House responded by floating a bill for the $35B war.

By Hendrik Van Der Berg, Brussels March 31 4 min read

A stock market trading floor screen showing deep red numbers across all major indices with an oil barrel price chart spiking above $100

Economy

March Ended and the Market Broke — S&P 500 Posts Worst Month Since 2022

The S&P 500 closed at an eight-month low, WTI settled above $100 for the first time since 2022, and Micron fell 30% from its all-time high in a single week.

By Hendrik Van Der Berg, Brussels March 31 4 min read

An empty suburban home with a 'For Sale' sign and open house balloons, no visitors in sight, quiet residential street on a spring afternoon

Economy

Mortgage Rates Stuck at 6.49% and the Spring Market Is a Ghost Town

Mortgage rates hit their highest point since September 2025 as the war premium baked into yields -- the spring housing market is dead on arrival.

By Hendrik Van Der Berg, Brussels March 31 4 min read

Oil futures trading screen showing a sharp spike and reversal

Economy

Oil Spiked to $107 on the Tanker Attack Then Fell on Trump's Exit Signal

Oil surged past $107 after another tanker attack in Hormuz, then retreated when Trump hinted at a ceasefire exit.

By Dara Osei, London March 31 3 min read

Long lines of vehicles at a South African fuel station ahead of April price hikes

Economy

South Africa Faces an April Fuel Price Shock and the War Is to Blame

South Africa faces petrol hikes of up to R5.70 per litre and diesel increases over 80 cents on April 1, driven by the Iran war.

By Dara Osei, London March 31 3 min read

Oil price chart showing WTI crude crossing $100 per barrel

Economy

WTI Crude Settles Above $100 for First Time Since Russia Invaded Ukraine

WTI crude closed at $102.88 Monday, its first settlement above $100 since June 2022, driven by Hormuz disruptions and war escalation.

By Hendrik Van Der Berg, Brussels March 31 2 min read

Chart showing Brent crude price elevation with war premium band highlighted

Economy

Brent Crude Holds Above $112 as War Premium Becomes Permanent Market Feature

Brent crude remains above $112 per barrel with analysts arguing the war premium is now a permanent feature of oil market structure.

By Hendrik Van Der Berg, Brussels March 31 2 min read

Gas station price sign showing regular unleaded above four dollars per gallon

Economy

Gasoline Hits $4 Per Gallon Nationally for First Time Since 2022

The national average gasoline price reached $3.96 and is expected to breach $4 per gallon this week, the first time since August 2022.

By Hendrik Van Der Berg, Brussels March 31 2 min read

Federal Reserve building with overlaid chart showing inflation and recession probability diverging

Economy

The Fed Is Paralyzed: Can't Cut for Inflation, Can't Hike for Recession

The Federal Reserve is trapped between oil-driven inflation that prevents cuts and recession risk that prevents hikes, holding rates at 3.5-3.75%.

By Hendrik Van Der Berg, Brussels March 31 2 min read

Goldman Sachs oil price model showing war premium band widening

Economy

Goldman's $25-32 War Premium Estimate Looks Conservative After Monday's Escalation

Goldman Sachs estimated a $25-32/bbl war premium in oil prices, but Monday's Kharg Island threats suggest the actual premium may be significantly higher.

By Theo Kaplan, San Francisco March 31 2 min read

Tanker ship in the Strait of Hormuz with insurance premium overlay chart

Economy

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Insurance Premiums Keep Climbing

War-risk insurance premiums for Hormuz transit have surged from 0.2% to over 1% of vessel value, effectively closing the strait to commercial traffic.

By Dara Osei, London March 31 2 min read