West Texas Intermediate crude oil settled at $102.88 per barrel on Monday, March 30, marking its first close above the $100 threshold since June 2022, when prices were elevated following Russia's invasion of Ukraine [1].

The settlement caps a 50% surge in WTI since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began February 28. Prices briefly touched $100 on March 9 before retreating, but persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions and escalating military operations have now pushed the benchmark decisively through the psychological barrier.

Monday's close was driven by three catalysts: Trump's Financial Times interview floating the seizure of Iran's Kharg Island, Spain's closure of its airspace to U.S. military aircraft, and continued disruption to tanker traffic through the strait. December 2026 WTI futures traded at $77, indicating the market prices the current premium as war-driven rather than structural.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone noted the divergence between spot and forward prices, arguing WTI is "more inclined to drop toward $50 a barrel by US midterms than stay above $100" once hostilities cease. But that analysis assumes hostilities will cease.

The last time WTI closed above $100, American consumers were paying record gasoline prices and the Federal Reserve was embarking on its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades. The parallels are not lost on traders. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $95, implying WTI remains elevated through summer at minimum.

For now, $100 oil is back. The question is whether it stays.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, New York