JPMorgan published a research note on Thursday warning that oil prices could spike to $120-130 per barrel in the near term, with a risk of surging above $150 if supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May. [1] Reuters reported the note as a formal price scenario, not a speculative exercise. [1]

The bank's analysts described a prolonged closure of the Strait as a scenario that "could disrupt electricity supply" for Gulf states and drive global oil markets into a supply deficit not seen since the 1973 embargo. [2] Oil has already climbed above $112 per barrel since the war began, and JPMorgan's near-term squeeze target of $120-130 implies another 10 to 15 percent upside from current levels.

At $150, the downstream effects cascade rapidly. Diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline prices would rise further. The fuel surcharges already imposed by FedEx, UPS, Amazon, and the USPS would escalate. Consumer spending power, already compressed, would face its most severe test since 2008. JPMorgan's note was read on X not as a warning but as a countdown.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco