Four days into the ceasefire, Maersk has not sent a single vessel through the Strait of Hormuz. The company's last transit was March 15 [1].

Yesterday's report documented the paradox and it has not resolved. War-risk insurance for Hormuz transit remains at 35 to 50 times pre-conflict levels. A passage that cost $15,000 to insure in February now runs $525,000 to $750,000. More than 1,000 ships remain queued outside the strait or rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to Asia-Europe voyages [2].

The ceasefire-insurance paradox is structural. Insurers will not lower premiums until ships transit safely. Shipping lines will not transit until premiums fall. Lloyd's of London underwriters have said they need weeks of sustained safe passage — not days — before reconsidering rates. A 14-day truce does not meet that threshold [2].

No timeline exists for resumption. Maersk has not announced any schedule for returning to Hormuz operations. The reroute around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10 to 21 days to Asia-Europe voyages depending on vessel speed and port congestion. The backlog will take weeks to clear even if transit resumes immediately — which no carrier has indicated it will [1].

The diplomatic signal is real. The commercial confidence is not. For every barrel of oil and container of goods that needs to pass through the strait, the gap between ceasefire and commerce remains exactly as wide as it was on day one.

-- DARA OSEI, London