Brent crude futures settled near $97 on Saturday, recovering from a mid-week plunge below $95 but still far below the $119 peak during the war's most intense phase. [1] The rebound coincided with CENTCOM's announcement that two U.S. destroyers had entered the Strait of Hormuz for mine clearance.

But futures and reality remain disconnected. As this paper reported Friday, the spot price of dated Brent — the real-world price of physical crude — stood at $132 per barrel on Thursday, a $35 gap over futures. [2] CNBC's Natasha Bernatova called it unprecedented: "The physical market is telling you that real barrels are becoming scarce."

Markets are pricing two scenarios simultaneously. Futures reflect the ceasefire narrative: talks happened, mine clearance began, diplomacy is working. Dated Brent reflects the physical reality: the strait is not open, tankers are not moving, and insurance premiums remain prohibitive.

The mine clearance mission puts the question to a material test. If tankers begin transiting within days, futures and physical prices converge. If the mines remain and Iran threatens vessels, the $35 gap widens into the market's verdict on the ceasefire.

-- THEO KAPLAN, New York