Sixteen days have passed since Bill Ackman's Pershing Square dropped its $64 billion non-binding offer for Universal Music Group, and the only person whose answer actually matters has still not given one. Vincent Bolloré, whose family vehicle owns more than 18 percent of UMG directly and whose Vivendi holds another 13 percent, has produced no public response. [1] His Paris-listed holding group has not responded to requests for comment from Reuters, from Ackman, or from the paper's prior reads.

The paper's April 21 read held silence as the answer. Day 16 does not adjust the read. Bolloré controls effective blocking power over any UMG deal — JPMorgan analysts said on April 10 they expect his camp to reject the Pershing bid — because his group does not need the cash, has been a buyer rather than a seller of UMG shares, and is unlikely to accept a discount to the prevailing strategic value. [2] Bolloré's group reported about €5.6 billion in net cash at year-end. His family wealth, per Forbes, has risen from $5.2 billion in 2017 to $9.8 billion this year.

Ackman disclosed that his first call before launching the bid was to Bolloré, and publicly characterized the response as "music to my ears." [1] Bolloré's camp has not characterized it at all. Under French listed-company conventions, a family-controlled industrial holding group with blocking power is under no obligation to sprint toward counteroffers. Silence compounds leverage.

UMG's board said the proposal was under review. Amsterdam-listed shares have been trading around the implied bid value, which suggests the market is pricing a revised or contested outcome rather than a closed deal. [3] Ackman's conditioning of the bid on Bolloré's participation means the blocking stake is also the deciding stake. The day count keeps moving. The phone that could end it keeps not ringing.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco