India's Russian crude imports ran above 2 million barrels a day in April and are projected to hold at that level in May, Kpler-tracked flows confirm. [1] Indian refiners are paying Russia a $5-$7 premium over Brent for May cargoes — a reversal of the 2022-2024 discount regime. [1] Reliance Industries has sought government clearance to import Iranian crude on four vessels as insurance if the U.S. waiver lapses. [3]

The shift is doctrine, not trade. India's March imports fell 13% to 4.5 million bpd as Middle East shipments crashed 61% to a record-low 26.3% share; OPEC's share hit 29%. [4] Russia replaced the Gulf. The paper's Tuesday Brent read tracked the fade before Wednesday-evening expiry. The clock vanished. Bessent named the new doctrine Tuesday evening: Kharg storage "full in days." Delhi reads the text exactly.

Reliance is the clearest read. Mukesh Ambani's operator of the world's largest single-site refinery arranged six million barrels of Russian oil for March, is loading Venezuelan heavy crude directly from PDVSA at Jose Terminal, and now has shipping-ministry clearance for four tankers — two Iran-flagged — to facilitate cargoes once Delhi's compliance review clears. [2][3][5] Russian ESPO flows are at ten-month highs. [6]

Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri's 41-plus-supplier strategy, announced March 26, has been executed in six weeks. [4] The Gulf's share has fallen from 55% in January to below 30% in March. The architecture is three buckets deep: Russian base, non-Gulf supplements (Angola, Nigeria, U.S., Oman), and Iranian-Venezuelan optionality in reserve. The clock is gone. The cargoes are not.

-- PRIYA SHARMA, Delhi