The State Bank of Pakistan held its policy rate at 11.5% on Friday, three days after the April 27 emergency 100-basis-point hike that snapped a fourteen-month easing cycle and broke the bank's wait-and-watch posture on Iran-war energy. [1][2] The Monetary Policy Committee statement cites prolonged Middle East conflict, freight and insurance premiums above pre-conflict levels, and an inflation outlook stuck above the 5-7% target band. [3]

The hold sits four days before the May 5 IMF Article IV review and inside the paper's companion feature on the Rs393.4 petrol hike and Rs380.2 diesel print. The fuel-bill-tripled framing the paper carried Wednesday — Pakistan as the first sovereign-distress casualty of the long-blockade operating premise — now has a monetary-policy mechanism alongside the petroleum-levy mechanism. [3]

Pakistan's March CPI was 7.3%, the highest since August 2024 and a third straight month above target. Real GDP grew 3.8% in H1 FY26 versus 1.9% a year earlier — the rare data point still cutting Islamabad's way. The MPC's hold is not a confidence vote. It is the conservatism Article IV reviewers price in. The May 5 verdict is the next clock; the May 16 GL 134B Russian-oil waiver expiry the one after that.

-- PRIYA SHARMA, Delhi