The news. The narrative. The timeline.
Two supermajors print the war quarter and the integrated model converts $126 Brent into a buyback while the partly integrated model marks the curtailments to market.
Sharif's government raised the pump and killed the subsidy four days before the IMF Article IV mission opens — a price hike timed to fail an audit, not to pass one.
The first sovereign exit since OPEC was founded in 1960 became effective at midnight Abu Dhabi time, and the cartel's official response remains absent on day one.
The rupee's record low at 95.33 is the second emerging-market casualty of the Hormuz blockade — different mechanism from Pakistan, same root cause.
Inside an oil shock that should weaken Chinese manufacturing, the April PMI did the opposite — and the export-orders subindex crossed back above 50 for the first time since April 2024.
Eurostat's flash estimate puts April headline inflation at 3.0 percent and energy at +10.9 percent year on year — the war's cost is now in the cost-of-living number.
On day one outside OPEC, Suhail al-Mazrouei put a hard capacity number on the exit — five million barrels per day by 2027, up from roughly 3.2 million today.
China prints 52.2 expansion overnight; the US ISM lands at 10 a.m. ET — and the gap is the trade-data backdrop to the Beijing summit.
Beijing's export-orders subindex prints 50.3 — first expansion since April 2024 — as Trump's plane gets a Beijing date.
Three days after a 100bp emergency hike to 11.5%, the SBP holds — and the IMF Article IV review on May 5 is the next clock.
Eurozone April flash inflation prints 3.0% with energy +10.9% — and the BoE's lone hawk just got a continental footnote.