OPEC+'s May 3 virtual communiqué confirmed a 188,000-barrel-per-day June production adjustment for the seven — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — the third consecutive monthly add and the first such decision since the United Arab Emirates' May 1 departure from OPEC. [1][2] The figure is May's 206 kbpd minus the UAE's previous share; the seven will meet again June 7. [1] The May 7 paper named the JTC technical communiqué watch as the Friday hinge after Brent's $101.27 close on the dilation day; today the watch resolves into the first OPEC-minus-UAE meeting on the calendar. The increase is largely a paper add while the Strait of Hormuz exchange of fire continues to choke physical Gulf supply, but it locks in OPEC+'s message that supply is ready when the war ends — Saudi Arabia's June quota is 10.291 million bpd against actual March output of 7.76 million. [3] The UAE has not announced its post-OPEC quotas; the seven's June 7 meeting is the next test of cohesion against Abu Dhabi's freed capacity.

-- DARA OSEI, London