The news. The narrative. The timeline.
The Fund cleared $1B EFF and $210M RSF on the day Pakistan's mediator role ran into live Hormuz fire — the channel-as-payment hypothesis converted to a verifiable receipt.
Brent closed at $100 Thursday and met Friday's Hormuz tanker fire; the war-premium bid is back and the $920M Wednesday short timing remains uninvestigated by Treasury or the CFTC.
T-8 to the May 16 cliff: OFAC's Russia oil waiver stands, OFAC has now told U.S. persons explicitly not to pay Iran's new strait toll, and the Iran-deal week runs through both.
Schnabel said the inflation risk from the Iran war 'has increased in recent weeks' and markets price three to four ECB hikes lifting the deposit rate from 2.00% to 2.75-3.00%.
AlJazira forecasts Q1 net of SAR 108.8 billion ($29.01 billion), capex of $13.1 billion, gearing at 7.4%, and a $114.76 Brent crossover — the company prints, the kingdom watches.
OPEC+'s May 3 communiqué locks in 188 kbpd June for the seven; first call without the UAE; next meeting June 7 with output largely paper while Hormuz holds.