The ECB's Iran-war language has moved from risk paragraph to policy vocabulary. Isabel Schnabel's May 6 speech says the war in Iran and the Middle East is hampering energy flows, that Hormuz disruption is hitting supply chains, and that April euro-area inflation rose to 3.0% with energy up 10.9%. [1]

The May 8 paper said Schnabel had named the hike path while energy inflation held the Middle East war inside ECB language. Reuters-linked coverage of her London remarks adds the market translation: three or four rate hikes over twelve months are now priced, with the deposit rate potentially moving from 2.00% toward 2.75%-3.00%. [2]

MSM treats this as hawkish central-bank signaling. X treats it as confirmation that the war tax has reached European households. Both are right, but incomplete: a central bank can ignore a headline for a week, not a 10.9% energy print.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels