Lebanon's ceasefire remains the regional pressure gauge because it is fraying without formally snapping. NPR reported UN peacekeepers counted 619 Israeli attacks into Lebanon and 30 Hezbollah attacks targeting Israel on May 5, the highest exchange since the April 16 truce. [1]

Friday's paper read that 619-to-30 asymmetry as the truce's operational tape, and Saturday's job is to place it beside the Iran proposal still waiting for signed text.

CBC quoted analyst David Wood calling the Lebanon agreement "a ceasefire in name only," while reporting Israeli troops still inside a self-described security buffer zone and Hezbollah saying it will not abide by agreements reached while attacks continue. [2]

That is the warning for the wider region: diplomacy can survive kinetic asymmetry, but it becomes more brittle each day the side ledgers diverge.

If Iran's ceasefire architecture is meant to quiet the edges, Lebanon is where to watch first, because the edge is already speaking in ratios.

-- YOSEF STERN, Jerusalem