Oil Bounced Back and the Market Did Not Call the Bluff
Brent settled at $103, not $98 — yesterday's crash was a flinch, not a verdict, and gas is up 34% in a month.
Economy
The Hormuz Toll Is Being Paid in Yuan
At least two vessels have paid Iran's $2 million Strait of Hormuz toll in Chinese yuan — the first live transactions in a post-dollar energy payment system.
The Sanctions Waiver Nobody Wants
The US offered a 30-day sanctions waiver on Iranian oil — and India's refiners, China's Sinopec, and Iran itself all said no thanks.
The Market Swung Three Trillion Dollars in a Week
The S&P 500 gained half a percent on Tuesday, but the week's real story is a $3 trillion market cap swing driven entirely by ceasefire headlines.
Goldman Raised Its Oil Forecast. The Worst Case Is $150.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent average to $85 from $77, with March/April peaks near $110 — and Wood Mackenzie says $200 is 'not outside the realm of possibility.'
Bitcoin Holding at $71,000. Not Collapsing, Not Recovering.
Bitcoin sits at $71,300, range-bound between $70-72K and down 18% from last year — neither crashing in the war panic nor rallying out of it.
War Costs Hit Sixty-Three Billion Dollars
The UN estimates $63 billion in regional economic losses in two weeks — and the Pentagon's supplemental request could top $200 billion, for a war without congressional authorization.
Japan Cracked Open Its Oil Reserves
Japan is releasing 53 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve — the first nation to officially crack open wartime reserves since the Hormuz crisis began.
Trump Eased Sanctions on Russia and Iran. Congress Noticed.
Bipartisan backlash erupted over easing oil sanctions on Russia and Iran simultaneously — Grassley says it fuels Putin's war, Bessent says the US is 'jiu-jitsuing' Tehran.