Oil's Friday Close Tells a Story the Ceasefire Can't
$101.40 oil is the market's vote of no confidence in the ceasefire path.
Economy
Gas at the Pump: 36% in Five Weeks, No Relief in Sight
The national average hit $4.87/gallon — consumers felt the war premium before traders did.
The Fed Is Trapped — and Mortgage Rates at 7.41% Are the Proof
Powell is trapped between inflation and recession — and 7.41% mortgages are the visible symptom of a Fed that cannot act.
Consumer Spending Is Cracking — 0.4% Tells the War's Demand-Side Story
The war's demand destruction has arrived — written in a 0.4% retail spending decline that Goldman Sachs's oil premium cannot explain away.
At 7.41%, the Housing Market Is Pricing Out a Generation
Existing home sales at 4.02M — lowest since 1995 — as the Fed's rate trap locks out an entire generation.
$49 Billion in Wall Street Bonuses — And the War Made It Uneven
The Q1 bonus pool is up, but it is not evenly distributed — energy desks are printing while everything else bleeds.
Big Oil's War Dividend: Exxon, Chevron, and the $101 Premium
At $101.40 WTI, Exxon and Chevron are printing cash — and the war premium that closed Hormuz is their dividend.