The news. The narrative. The timeline.
Abu Dhabi's exit from OPEC took effect at midnight May 1, and Sunday's eight-country ministerial is the cartel's first chance to answer a fracture it spent a week calling unimportant.
Brent settled at $108.10 Friday, off Thursday's $114.66 spike, but the curve says the war ends in months — not weeks — and U.S. retail gas held $4.39.
Sharif's government priced petrol for IMF compliance four days before a review the IMF has not actually scheduled in public — the binding clock is the fuel bill, not the audit.
Aramco prints Q1 May 10, calls May 11 — eight days for Riyadh to choose between defending the war premium and answering the UAE OPEC exit on the same tape.
Friday's RatingDog 52.2 print is now reading against a 12 percent week-on-week jump in Shanghai-Rotterdam container rates — the war is feeding through the bill of lading.
April capital flight ran another billion higher and the rupee held weak — the slow channel of the war premium keeps widening.
Two central banks call a war-driven oil spike transitory — the same word that broke them in 2021 — while the eurozone print already says otherwise.