Tuesday's ceasefire sent Brent crude down 15 percent in hours. The price signal traveled at the speed of electronic trading. The physical relief, for the countries that need it most, travels at the speed of tanker ships and broken infrastructure. [1]

This paper tracked the second-order effects of the war across four countries yesterday — Australia's improving fuel picture, Cuba's grid stuck at 60 percent, and Pakistan's cautious hope. Today, the pattern is clearer. The relief is real in some places and entirely theoretical in others.

Australia continues to improve. Diesel shortages fell from 312 to 274 service stations over the Easter weekend, and Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirmed that supply is secured "well into May." [2] But the improvement predates Tuesday's ceasefire — it reflects the excise cut that halved fuel duty to 26.3 cents per liter on April 1, alternative supply routing established weeks ago, and demand management. The ceasefire adds a price tailwind. It did not produce the operational recovery already underway. Bowen himself warned that fuel pain "will linger long after ceasefire, with damage taking years to repair." [3]

Cuba's situation is structurally different. The grid is operating at roughly 60 percent of generation capacity — enough for partial service, not enough to absorb demand surges without shedding load. [4] Cuba's crisis was not caused by the Strait of Hormuz. It was caused by the US oil blockade targeting Venezuela's exports, Cuba's primary supply source. That blockade remains in full effect regardless of any ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. The three grid collapses in March that left 10 million people without power are a separate emergency, on a separate timeline, requiring separate political will. The ceasefire changes nothing for Havana.

Pakistan imported more than 80 percent of its oil through supply chains disrupted by the war, and fuel prices rose roughly 40 percent over five weeks. [5] The ceasefire gives Islamabad hope — not least because Pakistan brokered the talks. But economists are urging caution: domestic fuel price adjustments move through layers of regulation and subsidy accounting, and relief is unlikely before three weeks even if the ceasefire holds.

Mexico's truckers, who began strike actions over diesel costs in late March, are watching the same oil screens as everyone else. The ceasefire is a price signal. What they need is a supply signal — and that requires Hormuz transit to normalize, refiners to adjust, and logistics chains to unclog. None of that happens in 48 hours. [6]

The pattern is consistent. Countries with diversified supply and functioning institutions — Australia — are recovering. Countries with structural dependencies — Cuba on Venezuela, Pakistan on Hormuz transit — are waiting. A ceasefire is not a supply chain.

-- DARA OSEI, London