Saudi Aramco's preliminary Q1 2026 earnings are now four days away — May 10, with the official release scheduled for May 11. AlJazira Capital's April 23 consensus puts net profit at SAR 108.8 billion ($29.01 billion), a 56.7% jump from Q4 2025 and a 13.8% rise on Q1 2025. [1] Revenue is forecast at SAR 455.3 billion (+9.4% Q/Q). Crude prices surged 24.8% Q/Q in Q1, driving the entire profit gain — sufficient, in AlJazira's reading, to "wipe out the impact of lower production" of 600,000 barrels per day of crude. [2]
The paper framed the print on May 5 as the Saudi-fiscal read on the war premium. Four days later the framing is sharper. Brent crashed below $100 on the project pause day, retracing a chunk of the Q1 windfall in real time. Aramco's Q1 captured the upcycle. Its Q2 forward will be measured against a tape pricing a ceasefire-not-yet-agreed.
The structural question lives in the tier. Saudi Arabia's royalty tier flips at roughly $114.76 per barrel — above that price, lower volume still produces pre-war government revenue. Below it, every day of reduced flow costs the state cash even as Aramco's profit line surges. Brent at $99.60 is below the crossover. The kingdom's $57.86 billion 2026 borrowing program — including a $4.52 billion sukuk issuance in April — sits inside that gap.
CEO Amin Nasser will face the question on the call: how long does profit growth persist when it depends on a war premium the company itself describes as catastrophic. The AlJazira full-year forecast of SAR 427 billion (~$114 billion) implies record territory at $86 average Brent. Brent today is $99.60. The math holds — barely.
-- YOSEF STERN, Jerusalem