The news. The narrative. The timeline.
Brent crashed 9.5% to $99.60 on a 14-point memo no one has signed, while ING's Patterson warns inventories are absorbing 13 mb/d of disrupted supply — a loaded spring, not relief.
The 6E invocation moved water from one Wyoming reservoir to keep an Arizona dam producing electricity past August; Hoover Dam will produce 40 percent less power as a result.
Islamabad gets paid for IMF discipline the same week it brokers the Iran-US back-channel — the geopolitical-IMF coupling is now structural, not coincidental.
Inflation at a record 73.5 percent and a dollar above 183,000 tomans set the floor on what any deal Pezeshkian signs has to deliver — Tehran is bargaining from a balance sheet, not a position.
Aramco's Q1 prelim arrives May 10 into a Brent tape that just crashed below $100 on the MOU pause day, making it the Saudi-fiscal read on the war premium.
Powell's term as Fed chair ends May 15 with Warsh likely to take the chair the same week, while Powell stays on the board through 2028 and denies Trump a governor seat.
Treasury's GL 134B authorizing Russian oil deliveries expires at 12:01 EDT on May 16 — ten days out, into a Brent tape pricing the MOU pause.
April's 3.0% headline with energy at +10.9% sits inside an ECB hold, and Brent's pause-day crash reopens whether the energy pass-through eases enough by June for the glide to resume.
The rupee holds at 95.32 per dollar after April's $7.5B FII outflow as Brent below $100 delivers the first relief signal — May flows will measure whether it sticks.