NOAA's National Hurricane Center released its 2026 Atlantic outlook on May 21 forecasting 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. The long-term normal is 14, 7, and 3. The agency assigned a 55 percent probability to a below-normal season, 35 percent near-normal, and 10 percent above-normal. [1]

This is the first below-normal Atlantic outlook NOAA has issued in three seasons. The first named storm of the 2026 season will be Arthur. NOAA's reasoning rests on competing factors — a developing El Niño expected to intensify wind shear over the basin and slightly warmer Atlantic sea-surface temperatures offset by weaker trade winds. NHC's official numbers track Colorado State's April outlook of 13 storms and 2 majors. [2]

AccuWeather's April 9 forecast diverged on the warm side: 11-16 named storms with 3-5 direct U.S. impacts. The seasonal range is the same conversation read from different model weights. [3] On X, NHC_Atlantic anchored the below-normal forecast and reminded readers that one landfalling storm can define an otherwise quiet year.

The Atlantic season opens June 1 and runs through November 30. The June peak does not arrive until mid-August. What the next six days reveal — whether a pre-season disturbance appears off the southeast Atlantic coast — will set the texture of the opening. As of Tuesday morning, the NHC was monitoring no areas of interest.

-- DARA OSEI, London