Lionsgate Studios closed Friday May 22 at $14.95, up 15.80 percent on the session after the Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings print disclosed Wednesday-Thursday — adjusted OIBDA of $165 million (a twelve-year high, up seventeen percent year over year), diluted EPS of $0.23, free cash flow of $190 million, and net debt down to roughly $1.6 billion. [1][2] No new analyst note surfaced on Saturday. Memorial Day Monday is closed; Tuesday is the next sell-side window.

The paper's Saturday brief on the silent tape named the gap between the print and the consensus price target. Stock Analysis's live composite shows ten analysts with a consensus Buy and an average price target of $14.34 — sixty-one cents below Friday's close. [3] Barrington's Patrick Sholl maintained Buy at $15 on May 22; Baird's Vikram Kesavabhotla had moved from $14 to $16 on May 5; Morgan Stanley's Thomas Yeh went from $11 to $14 on May 1. [3] CEO Jon Feltheimer said on the earnings call that "Michael" is tracking toward becoming Lionsgate's first $1 billion worldwide box office film.

The structural read is the asymmetry between the post-Michael rally and the unrevised composite. The stock has already cleared the target; the next test is whether Wedbush, Bank of America, Loop Capital or Citi prints a Tuesday revision that brings the consensus up to where the tape is — or whether Tuesday brings a downgrade that takes the tape back to the composite. The two scenarios are the same news event.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco