Economy — The New Grok Times

A dry irrigation ditch cutting across a Central Valley field in late afternoon, cracked earth, an empty standpipe, sepia wildfire haze on the horizon.

Economy

America's Worst Drought Since the Dust Bowl Covers 61 Percent of the Lower 48

The Palmer Index is at its highest reading since 1895. Only July and August 1934 were drier. The American drought is measured in historical months, not modern seasons.

By Dara Osei, London April 19 8 min read

Treasury Department building facade late afternoon, shadow of columned portico across the pavement, a single flag above.

Economy

Treasury Extends the Russia Oil Waiver to May 16 and Leaves Iran Out

Bessent said on Wednesday there would be no extension. On Friday OFAC issued General License 134B extending Russia to May 16. The same day Iran's waiver expired. The policy's half-life was 48 hours.

By Theo Kaplan, San Francisco April 19 7 min read

A small-town supermarket produce aisle midweek morning, sparse lettuce display, a handwritten price card taped over the old one, shopper's cart in frame.

Economy

A Drought and a War Have Redrawn American Food Prices

Urea is up 48 percent year over year. Seventy-eight percent of Southern farmers say they cannot afford what they need. The Palmer Index reading is the driest since 1895. Two shocks, one aisle.

By Dara Osei, London April 19 7 min read

The US Treasury Department building at dusk, the OFAC seal visible near the entrance.

Economy

Bessent's No-Renewal Commitment Lasted Forty-Eight Hours

OFAC issued GL 134B Friday, two days after Bessent said the Russia waiver would not be renewed and the Iran license would lapse — the asymmetry is the policy.

By Theo Kaplan, San Francisco April 19 4 min read

A damaged Persian Gulf oil refinery with smoke rising from a wrecked processing tower.

Economy

The IEA Says Gulf Oil and Gas Output Will Take Two Years to Recover

Fatih Birol told Neue Zürcher Zeitung it will take about two years to restore pre-war Middle East energy output — even with the Strait of Hormuz reopened.

By Dara Osei, London April 19 4 min read

A fuel-pump hand-lettered sign in a Quezon City gas station reads 'not available.'

Economy

The Philippines Asks Washington to Extend Its Russian Oil Waiver

Manila has formally asked the US for another Russia-oil window — the second Asian lobbyist, after India, on the same OFAC architecture extended Friday.

By David Chen, Beijing April 19 4 min read

The Bombay Stock Exchange trading floor at opening, traders at terminals looking at Sensex numbers on large overhead screens, morning light through the windows.

Economy

Indian Markets Open Monday Under a Different Gulf Than Friday's Brokers Left

Navy fired on by IRGC, ambassador summoned, Russia waiver extended, Iran's GL U expired Sunday — four data points the Sensex did not have Friday.

By Priya Sharma, Delhi April 19 2 min read

Oil tankers idling in the Persian Gulf off Qeshm island under a hazy dawn sky

Economy

Greek and Indian Tankers U-Turn Before Hormuz With 8.3 Million Barrels Aboard

Six tankers reversed course before the strait on Saturday, stranding the biggest single-day flow since the war began.

By Dara Osei, London April 19 2 min read

A crude oil tanker at anchor in the Gulf at dawn, waiting for a legal window that has closed

Economy

Treasury's Iranian Oil Waiver Expires at Midnight Sunday

General License U lapsed at 12:01 a.m. Sunday, closing the one-month window for 140 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian crude at sea.

By Theo Kaplan, San Francisco April 19 2 min read

A rocky mountain ridge with patchy remnants of snow only at the highest elevations, a bare SNOTEL snow-measurement station in the foreground, late afternoon light, Colorado Rockies.

Economy

The Western Snow Drought Has Already Locked in the Water Crisis Before the First Hot Day

Colorado River Basin snowpack peaked a full month early and at 51 percent of median. By late summer, the reservoirs catch the consequences.

By Dara Osei, London April 19 2 min read

A wildland fire glow over a ridge in northern California at dusk, with a CAL FIRE engine and firefighters silhouetted in the foreground, orange smoke against the purple sky.

Economy

A Saturday-Night Wildfire in Siskiyou County Opens a Fire Season a Month Early

The Scarface Fire was called in at 8:14 p.m. Saturday. California's year-to-date fire count is already forty percent above its five-year average.

By Dara Osei, London April 19 2 min read

A farmer surveys dry, cracked soil in a Midwestern field at dawn before planting equipment starts

Economy

The Drought, the War, and the American Farmer's Operating Margin

Nitrogen fertilizer up thirty percent, diesel up, rain absent. Seventy-eight percent of Southern farmers cannot afford full application this spring.

By Dara Osei, London April 19 2 min read